$LRCX Long Term Wave 4 Elliott Wave Update July 31, 2024
### LRCX Long Term Elliott Wave Update — July 31, 2024
Lam Research Corporation (LRCX), a key player in the semiconductor industry, has been navigating a complex corrective phase, specifically an ABC flat pattern, over the past few months. This update delves into the Elliott Wave analysis for LRCX, focusing on potential downside targets and critical resistance levels that could signal a trend reversal.
#### Current Corrective Phase: ABC Flat
LRCX has been trapped in an ABC flat correction, a common pattern in Elliott Wave theory that typically indicates a pause or consolidation within a larger trend. In this case, LRCX is in the midst of a Wave 4 correction, following a strong Wave 3 rally. The ABC flat pattern consists of three sub-waves:
1. **Wave A**: An initial decline that sets the stage for the correction.
2. **Wave B**: A partial retracement or rebound, which does not exceed the starting point of Wave A.
3. **Wave C**: A final decline, often equal to or slightly larger than Wave A, completing the corrective phase.
#### Key Levels and Targets
1. **Wave 4 Retracement to .382 of Wave 3**: In Elliott Wave analysis, Wave 4 often retraces approximately 38.2% (.382 Fibonacci retracement level) of the preceding Wave 3. For LRCX, this retracement level is around 815. This level represents a crucial downside target where the current corrective wave might find support. Testing this level, particularly around earnings announcements, would be a critical point to observe.
2. **Potential Test of 815 Support**: As LRCX approaches its earnings release, the stock could test the 815 range, especially if the market reacts negatively to the company’s performance or guidance. This level serves as a potential support zone, where buyers may step in if the price action aligns with broader market sentiment.
3. **Key Resistance at 925**: For LRCX to break out of the current downtrend and invalidate the bearish outlook, it would need to exceed the 925 resistance level decisively. This level marks the upper boundary of the recent trading range and a significant barrier for bulls. A break above 925, especially on strong earnings or positive market catalysts, would indicate a potential resumption of the uptrend, signaling the end of the Wave 4 correction and the beginning of a new impulse wave.
#### Earnings and Market Sentiment
The upcoming earnings announcement will play a pivotal role in determining the next move for LRCX. Positive earnings, coupled with upbeat forward guidance, could catalyze a breakout above the 925 level, reversing the downtrend and confirming the end of the corrective phase. Conversely, disappointing earnings could lead to a test of the 815 support level or lower, as investors reassess the stock’s valuation and growth prospects.
#### Conclusion
LRCX is currently navigating a critical phase within its Elliott Wave structure. The ABC flat correction has brought the stock to a crucial juncture, with key support at 815 and resistance at 925. The upcoming earnings release will be a decisive factor in determining whether LRCX can break out of its current downtrend or continue to seek lower support levels. Investors should watch these levels closely and consider both fundamental and technical analyses when making trading decisions. The semiconductor sector’s broader performance and market sentiment will also play significant roles in shaping LRCX’s trajectory in the near term.
